US Stock Market Summary and Stock Picks for the NYSE, Nasdaq, and AMEX US Stock Picks

November 15,  Weekend Update
5:45 PM EDT


The S&P500 closed Friday at 873 ( chart ). The new weekly low of 818 was followed by a short covering intraday rally. Thursday marked a turning point with buying on high volumes in the last few hours of the day. It is not clear if Thursday's rally will have created a triple bottom low of 818 in the short term outlook.

Proshares Ultra Short S&P 500, up 9.58% for the week. SDS peaked at $113.90 ( chart ) Thursday. From last week, our suggested target price of $115-125 was nearly achieved.

S&P500 Technical Support - Holding on to the triple bottom ?

The next leg down could occur if the market were to close below
825. Traders are watching for this triple bottom to hold. The significance of this support should not be taken lightly - especially if you are long on the market. If this support level does fail, a drop of approximately 8-10% would be expected. Following the sharp drop, another series of bottoming formations is expected before a recovery. The next S&P500 support level is 768-775 , dating back to 2002.

Oil Prices

Let's examine the Oil price for a long term prediction into 2009.
With additional gains in the $USD ( chart ) , West Texas WTIC $57.60 (chart ) could find support at 2003-2005 prices of $40 a barrel. In a normal retracement from $51 to the peak of $147, we would estimate a  $100 support or a 50% retracement. As oil has moved lower and faster than expected, the normal price action is now speculation. Our Short term prediction for November-December 2008, is somewhere near $50-51 price support. OPEC could cut production, however this usually is a band-aid solution to price deterioration

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Canadian Stock Picks, TSX, TSX Venture Canadian Stock Picks

November 15, Weekend Update
5:45 PM EDT


The TSX 9,055 ( chart ) was down 5.6% or the week. Volumes were above average on the downside move.  For the TSX, technical support is at 8530. The low of the week came in at 8572 and was a mirror image of the S&P500's movements. Similar to the US Market, Thursday's rally was a bounce off technical support. 

Unlike the US market, the TSX could drop a substantial distance to technical support if a new wave down started. The level of 5678 from 2002's lows would put the TSX down an eye opening -37%. Could this happen ? The US Market is nearing the 2002 lows and is taking on world leadership in the market's direction. 
 
If the TSX can hold the level of 8500 for another few weeks, a grid higher could be in the cards. Oil, gold, and the financials will need to move upward  for a bottom to form. For oil to return to the fear of shortages, world demand would need to pick up fast with speculators joining the frenzy. This sounds to good to be true.

Horizon BetaPro TSX 60 Bear HXD, $31.22 closed up 11.26% on the week. For next week, if the key support for the S&P500 holds, we suggest taking some money of the short side of the market. Or (2) the market crashes below support and it's time to hold on again.

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